The gold market is entering early September under unusual circumstances. The upcoming U.S. jobs report, expected on September 4, 2026, could shift expectations regarding the Fed in a matter of hours. Investors will be watching three key figures in particular: job creation, the U.S. unemployment rate, and wages. The latest report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics already showed clear weakness, with 23,000 nonfarm jobs lost in July and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. In theory, a slowdown in job growth should prompt the U.S. central bank to remain cautious. But inflation complicates the picture. If prices remain too high, the Fed may maintain a firm stance—or even raise rates—despite a less robust labor market. This is precisely the scenario that interests holders of physical gold: Can the price of gold rise when interest rates go up, if confidence in the economy weakens at the same time?

Key Takeaways from the Article

• The U.S. jobs report for 2026, released on September 4, is a key event for the Fed and the price of gold.
• The latest official data already show a slowdown, with 23,000 nonfarm jobs lost in July and an unemployment rate of 4.1%.
• A rate hike isn’t always bad for gold: it all depends on real yields, the dollar, and confidence in the economic outlook.
• In a scenario resembling stagflation, physical gold could once again become a wealth protection tool for individual investors.

Why the September 4 report is crucial

The official BLS calendar sets the release of the U.S. jobs report for 2026 on September 4. This date matters because it comes before the next round of monetary policy decisions. The markets won’t just be looking at the headline number. They’ll be trying to determine whether July’s weakness was a statistical blip or the beginning of a deeper slowdown.

The Fed and Gold: A Less Mechanical Relationship Than It Seems

In late July, the Fed kept the federal funds rate range at 3.50%–3.75%, according to its official statement. The FOMC minutes, however, show a central bank attentive to inflationary risks. For gold, the usual interpretation is well-known: higher rates increase the appeal of bonds and weigh on an asset that does not pay a coupon. This logic often explains the corrections in the price of gold following a hawkish statement from the Fed.

The Unusual Scenario: Weak Employment, Persistent Inflation

The most concerning scenario for September would be one in which U.S. employment slows without a sufficient decline in inflation. This is not a classic recession. Nor is it a comfortable expansion. It’s a gray area, sometimes likened to stagflation and gold: less growth, but prices that are still too high.

In its Gold Market Commentary, the World Gold Council points out that a Fed forced to raise rates in response to inflation may, paradoxically, not be bad for gold if that decision reflects sustained strain in the economy. Gold is then no longer just a financial commodity. It becomes a hedge against a loss of visibility.

Why Physical Gold Can Hold Its Ground

For a retail investor, physical gold serves a different purpose than an ETF or a trading product. It is not intended to anticipate every rate movement. It serves to diversify a portfolio when traditional balance points become less reliable. If U.S. unemployment rises while the Fed maintains a restrictive stance, stocks may lose confidence in growth, bonds may suffer from rising rates, and cash may be eroded by inflation.

The dollar: a key factor for French savers

The international price of gold is generally quoted in dollars. For a French investor, the price in euros therefore depends on both the movement of gold in dollars and the euro-dollar exchange rate. A strengthening dollar can support the price of gold in euros, even if the price per ounce changes little; the opposite is also possible.

It is therefore important not to directly apply U.S. market commentary to the French market. Monitoring the price in euros, product premiums, and one’s own wealth-building goals provides a more useful perspective than focusing on a single intraday price movement.

What Strategy Should You Adopt Before the Release?

The September 4 report should not lead to a hasty decision. Rather, it should serve as a test. If the jobs report comes in significantly lower than expected, the market could anticipate a less aggressive Fed, which would support gold. If employment slows without collapsing and inflation remains the top priority, the Fed could maintain a hawkish stance. Even in this case, gold as a safe-haven asset may remain relevant if investors fear a monetary policy misstep. A phased accumulation strategy then allows investors to average in their entry price and reduce their reliance on a single statistic.

Conclusion

Yes, the price of gold can rise even if the Fed raises interest rates. This scenario becomes plausible when the rate hike does not reflect a strong economy, but rather persistent inflation in a less robust labor market. The September 4, 2026 U.S. jobs report will therefore be a key indicator. It won’t provide a definitive answer, but it may reveal the market trend for the coming weeks. For retail investors, the stakes are clear: if the relationship between employment and inflation becomes less predictable, physical gold remains a central component of a prudent diversification strategy.