1. Gold and silver levitate against a backdrop of geopolitical crisis

On Tuesday,the ounce of gold was trading at around $4,650-$4,670, close to its all-time high of $4,689 set the previous day. For the month of January, the yellow metal is now up by nearly 8%, after an already bullish start to the year.

Silver followed an even more spectacular trend, with an ounce hovering around 93-94 dollars, after hitting an all-time high of over 94 dollars on January 19. In January alone, the grey metal gained around 30%, and over 200% year-on-year, driven by an increasingly tight market in terms of physical availability.

2. The driving force: the Greenland crisis, tariffs and the global risk-off

The recent surge is directly linked to the escalation between Washington and Europe over Greenland. Since the weekend of January 18-19, the threat of new US tariffs - 10% from February 1, potentially 25% by June on a basket of European imports - has triggered a sharp downturn in European equities and a flight to safe havens.

Against this backdrop, gold and silver hit new highs, while European indices lost up to 2% at the opening on Monday. Investors are clearly arbitraging in favor of assets perceived as "out of system" in the face of the risk of a new transatlantic trade war and the deteriorating diplomatic climate within NATO.

Added to this :

• expectations of a more cautious monetary policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, which could delay its tightening cycle in the face of the tariff-related shock to confidence;
• a weaker dollar at the start of the week, mechanically favorable to precious metals;
• renewed volatility in crypto-currencies, with bitcoin falling back sharply after the latest tariff announcements, mechanically reinforcing the appeal of metals as a reserve asset.

3. What does this mean for individual investors?

For a French investor, this market phase calls for a number of observations:

Powerful but fragile momentum: the rise is strong and rapid, particularly for silver. At these record levels, the risk/return trade-off over a very short time horizon becomes less favorable, with a high risk of technical corrections in the event of a temporary easing on the geopolitical front.

Gold's long-term role confirmed: the current sequence once again illustrates gold's role as portfolio insurance against political and monetary shocks. For a diversified investor, it's less a question of "chasing performance" than of calibrating a strategic base of physical gold (bullion, coins) as a stable percentage of assets.

Silver: opportunity but extreme volatility: silver combines precious metal status with industrial uses (energy transition, solar energy, electronics). The current dynamic may be of interest to investors prepared to accept very high volatility and abrupt correction phases. For the retail investor, this argues in favor of strictly limited amounts and a long-term vision, rather than short-term speculative transactions.

Timing of purchases: given the levels reached, gradual entry (purchases spread out over time) seems more prudent than a one-off investment, in order to smooth out a possible downturn in prices if trade tensions ease or equity markets stabilize.

4. News item of the week: six ingots seized at Moldovan border

The tension over precious metals is also reflected in customs news. On January 14, 2026, Moldovan customs services, in cooperation with Ukrainian border guards, intercepted at a border post a traveler smuggling six metal bars stamped "FINE GOLD" in his luggage aboard a coach from Ukraine. The ingots were seized and sent for metallurgical expertise; proceedings are underway against the alleged holder.

In the background, this type of case illustrates the structural increase in attempts to defraud and smuggle gold when prices tighten. For the individual investor, it is a reminder of the importance of using secure, duly-regulated buying and holding channels, to guarantee traceability, authenticity and liquidity over the long term.

To sum up, by January 20, 2026, gold and silver are in record territory, under the combined effect of the Greenland crisis, US tariff threats and a global shift to "risk aversion" mode. The sequence confirms the strategic interest of precious metals in an estate, but imposes greater discipline on entry points and amounts committed.