Since the start of the summer, the price of gold has soared to new all-time highs. An ounce has already surpassed the psychological threshold of $3,500, confirming once again the yellow metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Against a backdrop of international economic and geopolitical tensions, what impact will this surge in gold prices have over the coming months, both for private investors and for major financial institutions, internationally and in France?

ARTICLE SUMMARY :

• 1) A global context of strong appreciation for the yellow metal
• 2) International consequences
• 3) Direct consequences for France
• 4) Possible scenarios for the coming months

1) A global context of strong appreciation for the yellow metal

The price of gold has crossed a major psychological threshold, exceeding 3,500 dollars an ounce on international markets. It is currently approaching 3,700 dollars. This increase does not come as a complete surprise, as it is part of a well-defined long-term trend.

Over a twenty-year period, the metal rose from around $280 to over $1,800 an ounce, before accelerating again.

Recent events have amplified this ideal environment for gold, due to a number of factors:

• Expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve,
• The weakening dollar,
• Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, which fuel the search for security.

2) International consequences

Central banks, governments... increase their reserves

On a global scale, central banks are the driving force behind gold prices. For several years now, some of them have been increasing their gold purchases to reduce their dependence on the dollar.

China, India, Turkey and several European countries are also building up their metal reserves, creating structural demand. The current rise validates this strategy, establishing gold as a leading monetary asset.

Financial markets redirect flows to gold

Flows into gold-backed ETFs are reaching record levels, reflecting a switch by institutional investors to what are considered safer investments.

Conversely, sovereign bonds, once a safe haven, are losing their appeal. Gold's rise thus also reflects a weakening of public debt and a loss of confidence in traditional currencies.

3) Direct consequences for France

In practical terms, the rise in gold prices in France can be seen in a number of ways:

Increased wealth

In particular, households holding coins or bullion. For example, the value of 20-franc Napoleons, which are widely held, is rising rapidly. This appreciation gives many savers the feeling of being protected against currency erosion.

In a context where traditional savings products offer negative real returns, gold appears to be a credible alternative.

Renewed interest in investment gold

The rapid rise in the price of gold has led to a marked return to the yellow metal in France. Trading houses such as Godot & Fils and other online platforms are witnessing an increase in the volume of bullion and coin purchases.

If there is indeed a clear acceleration in demand, this trend can be explained by growing mistrust of the financial and real estate markets, which seem more uncertain. Gold is once again becoming an essential diversification asset for savers seeking to protect their purchasing power.

4) Possible scenarios for the coming months

Looking at the current dynamics of this asset, three main scenarios are already taking shape.

- In an optimistic scenario, the US Federal Reserve (FED) confirms a rate cut, the dollar remains weak and institutional buying remains strong. Gold could then break through the $3,700 mark in the next few days, or even rapidly approach $4,000 an ounce.

- In an intermediate scenario, assuming a more cautious attitude on the part of the US central bank, gold would consolidate at around 3,400 to 3,500 dollars, without losing its role as a safe-haven asset.

- In a "defensive" scenario, we could envisage a return to macroeconomic stability and a strengthening dollar. In this scenario, a more pronounced correction towards $3,200 an ounce is possible.

Such a scenario would not call into question the underlying trend initiated in recent years, but would serve as a reminder that gold remains an asset subject to market cycles.

Conclusion

The recent surge in the price of gold is part of a global drive for security in the face of growing national and international uncertainty.

Whatever the case may be, in the months to come, gold should undeniably retain a central place in financial and wealth strategies. In France, as in the rest of the world, its rise will have tangible economic consequences, whether in terms of asset valuation, tax choices, monetary policies or trade balances.

In other words, more than ever, the yellow metal confirms its historic role as a bulwark against instability and a universal benchmark of value.