In 2025, gold posted its best performance since... 1979!

At the beginning of December, gold posted a year-to-date performance of around +60%. This performance is driven by all-time highs above $4,000 an ounce.

The major banks remain optimistic overall, but are warning of several risks: the start of monetary normalization, profit-taking and a possible slowdown in central bank purchases. Against this backdrop, what is the outlook for gold in 2026?

2025: the determinants of an exceptional year

As in 1979, the surge in gold prices in 2025 was fuelled by similar factors: high geopolitical tensions, concerns over US debt and high volatility in both equities and bonds.

But more essentially, gold's rise this year is based on exceptional investment demand, estimated at around 500 tonnes per quarter. This represents an increase of around +75% compared to 2024. In the first nine months of 2025, investment demand for gold reached levels close to those seen in 2020, 2016 and 2011!

Up until 2024, the price trend had been driven mainly by central bank purchases and limited gold production. By 2025, gold is reinforcing its status as an "uncertainty hedge". It no longer appears merely as an anti-inflation asset, but as a broad protection against political, technological, financial and monetary risks.

Last but not least, the cut in US central bank interest rates may explain much of the renewed investor interest in investments such as gold and silver.

What factors could influence gold in 2026?

According to the World Gold Council, the upward trend that began in late 2022 still has historic potential.

Indeed, the rise in gold prices in the 1970s lasted almost 900 days, compared with around 1,200 days for the rises that began in 2007 or 2015. History shows that gold can follow sustained trends, often lasting between three and four years. This dynamic of reallocation towards precious metals would therefore support a sustainable rise in gold and silver.

But these trends are also closely linked to the evolution of the dollar. The US political context, marked by Donald Trump's return to the White House, seems to be accelerating this movement. It is therefore reasonable to assume that political factors will also influence precious metals prices in 2025. This should continue into 2026.

In the short term, however, the World Gold Council points to signs of overheating. It notes, for example, that "technical indicators for gold, with an RSI above 90 and prices more than 20% above their 200-day moving average, suggest an overbought market, which could prompt short-term investors to position themselves for a reversal".

Despite these technical signals, the major banks remain confident. Deutsche Bank, UBS, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America and HSBC all anticipate a high gold price in 2026, with a bullish bias but a more moderate advance than in 2025.

• Deutsche Bank is targeting around $4,450 an ounce in its central scenario.
• UBS projects $4,500 per ounce for mid-2026.
• Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Bank of America mention targets of between $4,900 and $5,200 an ounce in their optimistic scenarios, which would represent an increase of +10% to +20% on current levels.

Remarkably, no major institution is forecasting a major fall in the metal. The consensus is therefore for "consolidation at a high level in 2026".

Are we heading for a return to sustainable gold?

In a recent survey, Goldman Sachs revealed that almost 70% of institutional investors expect the price of gold to rise in 2026. Among them, 36% even believe that the yellow metal could exceed $5,000 an ounce.

It's also interesting to note that these investors see gold as a safe haven in the face of fiscal and monetary uncertainty. Since the 2008 financial crisis, gold seems to have regained its central status in the international financial system, driven by a stronger and more structural demand for safe-haven assets than ever before.

In a context of volatile financial markets and uncertain monetary cycles, gold has become a preferred asset for investors. At the same time, several central banks, notably in Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, have increased their gold reserves in a bid to diversify and reduce their dependence on the dollar.

A number of factors could drive gold higher in 2026. Real interest rates could remain low despite partial monetary normalization. More structural inflation and financial uncertainties would maintain a favorable environment for gold. Minimum purchases by central banks, estimated by Goldman Sachs at around 80 tonnes per month, would be another pillar.

Gold also remains underweight in many institutional portfolios, offering reallocation potential in the event of a rise in risk aversion. Finally, geopolitical tensions, the fragmentation of the international monetary system and persistent doubts surrounding US debt reinforce the appeal of the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset.

To sum up, according to the major banks, gold should continue to perform well in 2026, but with a more measured rise than the absolutely exceptional one seen in 2025.

In any case, metals are making a comeback on the financial scene.