On 22 April 2025, the price of gold reached a new symbolic milestone, surpassing $3,500 an ounce for the first time in its history. This remarkable performance is part of an upward trend that began several years ago, making gold one of the best-performing investments of the last decade. 

This benefits both intangible gold, such as ETFs, and physical gold, such as bars, bullion and bullion coins.

ARTICLE SUMMARY : 

• A brief review of gold's performance over the past two decades
• A surge in the gold price supported by current events
• What can we expect from gold's future performance?
• Conclusion: Outlook for 2025

A brief history of gold over the past two decades

It is widely accepted that gold is a highly sought-after safe-haven asset in times of economic, financial and geopolitical crisis or instability. However, three major events have marked the recent history of the price of an ounce of gold: 

The first time the symbolic level of $1,000 an ounce was breached was during the subprime crisis in 2007/2008. 

The $2,000 mark was tested and surpassed in 2020 as a result of the global COVID pandemic. 

The $3,000 threshold was reached and surpassed in the first quarter of 2025 (March) following the introduction of across-the-board tariffs by the United States. 

Source : Tradingview 

To fully understand the powerful historical upward momentum we are currently experiencing, we need to imagine: 

• It took more than twelve years to go from USD 1,000 an ounce to USD 2,000 an ounce. 
• It took less than five years to go from 2,000 dollars an ounce to 3,000 dollars an ounce. 
• It took just one month to go from 3,000 dollars to 3,500 dollars. 

What's more, in exactly five years (April 2020/April 2025), gold has more than doubled in value, rising from 1,600 dollars an ounce to almost 3,500 dollars today. In 2024 alone, the gold metal rose by 27%. Even more impressive, since the start of 2025, just over a quarter ago, gold has already outperformed the market by more than 33%. 

Source : Tradingview 

Gold continues to post record after record. Since April 09, gold has gained 17%. Over the same period, gold has racked up seven bullish daily sessions and only two small daily declines. Finally, since the beginning of 2025, gold has beaten its all-time high 23 times. 

As you can see, the uptrend remains intact, solid and powerful, but what are the factors behind such a move? 

A surge in the gold price supported by current events

The latest leg up in gold prices at the beginning of April coincided with Liberation Day in the US, when President Donald Trump announced massive tariffs on all his US partners. What had previously been presidential campaign rhetoric has now become reality. 

Stock markets around the world plunged as the world entered a period of uncertainty of indeterminate duration. Friday 04 April 2025 will be remembered as ‘Black Friday’, the worst stock market session since the COVID pandemic in March 2020 (between -5% and -10% for the main world indices). 

This had the effect of reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Fears of a global trade war have effectively convinced investors to sell their risky assets (equities in particular) to protect themselves with gold. 

To add to the prevailing tension, President Trump directly insulted the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, describing him as ‘a huge loser’. Before finally backtracking on 22 April, he also officially announced that he wanted to ‘fire him as soon as possible’. These comments were particularly destabilising for the markets and constituted a serious attack on the independence of this institution. 

On another front, a purely technical effect also worked in gold's favour, namely the fall in the dollar. The dollar fell by 6.2% over the month against the euro, a very significant decline on the foreign exchange market. Gold prices are denominated in dollars. A fall in the greenback makes gold more attractive to investors whose reference currency is not the dollar. 

Finally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is already beginning to feel the effects of the deterioration in economic growth in various countries. The IMF has revised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January. 

What can we expect from the gold price?

While the bullish momentum is there, we are currently in a period of price discovery. In other words, since such high prices have never been reached in the past, it is not easy to set medium- or long-term targets for profits and capital gains. 

Technical analysis of the gold price 

In the short term, the parabolic movement that gold has been building up graphically for weeks could come to a halt. A breather would even be legitimate, and would offer relevant entry points for a rebound in the months ahead. 

However, market volatility is particularly high (the VIX or ‘fear index’ remains above 20) and changes in bond, share, gold and currency prices are highly dependent on future political and economic developments (inflation, recession, etc.). 

Investors should therefore remain cautious over the next few weeks, as a violent downturn in the gold price cannot be ruled out unless economic and geopolitical tensions ease somewhat (negotiations on tariffs with China, resolution of the Ukraine/Russia conflict, intervention by the Fed, etc.). 

Rather than risk the ‘FOMO’ syndrome (fear of missing an opportunity), and buy too high and too expensive, it is better to prepare your intervention levels. At a very basic level, we can use Fibonacci retracements to identify areas where gold prices are likely to react. 

Source: Tradingview 

• Initially, a return to the level of $3,300 an ounce (23.6% retracement of the upward movement). 
• If there is a sharper downtrend, the $3150 area would appear to be the relevant target (38.20% retracement of the uptrend). 
• From 50% retracement of the upward movement, corresponding to the $3,050/3,000 zone. 

These support levels do not, however, call into question the particularly bullish long-term trend. If we stick to Fibonacci extensions, we can see price levels that could offer interesting profit-taking opportunities. 

• The first target price is $3720 (23.60%). 
• The second target would be $3,850 (38.20%). 
• And for a more ambitious long-term target, the $4,000 zone, a new psychological level (50%). 

Source: Tradingview 

Major US banks' forecasts for 2025 

• Goldman Sachs has again raised its forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,700 an ounce. In an even more optimistic scenario, its analysts envisage a rise to $4,500 in the event of a recession in the United States. 
• J.P. Morgan forecasts that the price of gold will remain above 3,000 dollars an ounce by the end of 2025. 
• Bank of America anticipates an average gold price of over 3,500 dollars in 2025, with a projection of around 3,350 dollars for 2026. 
• UBS has raised its forecast for 2025 to $3,500 an ounce. 
• Citigroup has raised its gold price target to $3,500 an ounce for the coming months. 

These banks are basing their positive forecasts on the following factors: 

• Persistent, higher-than-expected demand for gold from central banks. 
• Particularly strong flows into gold-backed ETFs, as investors seek protection against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. 
• Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies (tariffs) will continue to support prices in the short term. 
• A very sharp increase in gold purchases by China to diversify its reserves and protect itself against the risks associated with the US dollar. 

Conclusion: Outlook for 2025

Gold's rise from record to record during the first quarter reflects investors' growing concerns about a particularly unstable and uncertain economic environment. 

Although a correction in the gold price cannot be ruled out, the long-term trend remains strongly upwards. 

Indeed, forecasts from the major US banks suggest that this uptrend could continue in the months ahead, reinforcing gold's role as the ultimate safe-haven asset. 

DISCLAIMER: 

This analysis does not constitute financial investment advice. Godot & Fils accepts no responsibility for its use or for any consequences resulting therefrom. Godot & Fils cannot guarantee that the information provided above is complete or accurate and therefore accepts no responsibility for the risks incurred by any person acting solely on the basis of this information. Please note that this information does not in any way take into account the specific financial situation and investment objectives of the persons receiving it.