After reaching a record high of almost $4,400 an ounce, the price of gold has been hovering around $4,000 since the beginning of November.

The Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point cut in the U.S. key interest rate at the end of October has not led to a further sharp rise in the price of gold.This was in contrast to previous monetary easings. Nevertheless, the general context remains favorable for gold.

What has been the recent trend in the price of gold and silver, and what trajectory are the banks anticipating between now and the end of the year?

ARTICLE SUMMARY :

• 1) Key events
• 2) Gold prices stabilize near record highs
• 3) Silver above 2011 record highs
• 4) What's the outlook for year-end?

1) Key events

- Sharp slowdown in US employment: only 22,000 jobs created in August, after a historically weak July - the first time this has happened since 2021.

- U.S. growth still solid, but Fed may cut rates again in December, in a pre-emptive move to support activity.

- Inflation picks up slightly in the US, reaching 3% in October, its highest level since January. In detail, inflation is mainly driven by energy, and mainly gas and electricity. However, economists anticipate a gradual decline in the coming months.

- On October 6, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks from November 1, and a 10% tariff on buses, citing national security concerns. At the same time, Washington and China signed a Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement in Busan on October 30. Under this agreement, the United States agreed to freeze further tariff increases on Chinese imports.

- In the euro zone, the European Central Bank maintained its key interest rate at 2%. Expressed in euros, the gold price posted a year-on-year performance of +40%, held back slightly by the dollar's fall against the euro.

Source: 12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index, selected categories

2) Gold prices stabilize near their peaks

After a continuous surge between December 2024 and April 2025, driven by the first U.S. rate cut, gold stabilized during the summer, moving within a narrow corridor. The further reduction in the key interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25% in September 2025 rekindled investor interest, driving the price up by around +30%.

The correction at the end of October, linked to profit-taking and portfolio reallocations, was merely a technical pause in a structurally upward trend, supported by institutional demand and central bank purchases.

Source: XAU USD Chart - Investing.com

The Federal Reserve's decision to cut its key rate from 4.25% to 4.00% at the end of October rekindled investor interest in gold, the price of which rallied but failed to regain its all-time high.

Recent price movements took gold into the "overbought" zone according to the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, but the recent correction brought it back to the "overbought" zone.cent correction has brought it back to a healthier level, probably allowing a rebalancing of positions", said Morgan Stanley in a note.

3) Silver above its 2011 record high

In October, the price of silver broke through its previous all-time high from 2011, surpassing the symbolic threshold of $50 an ounce. After peaking at around $54.50 on October 13, however, the gray metal went through a consolidation phase, in the wake of gold's downturn.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decision in favor of further monetary easing interest in silver, which is once again approaching its highest levels.

By way of comparison, the price of gold broke its 2011 record... as early as 2020! And this against a backdrop of pandemics and historically low real interest rates.

This time lag suggests that silver could still have upside potential, especially as it has outperformed gold since the start of the year.

4) What's the outlook for the end of the year?

For 2026, most of the major banks anticipate a gold price close to $4,500 an ounce.

Société Générale is even aiming for a target of around 4,700 dollars, while Citi and UBS are favouring a scenario of temporization after the sharp rise seen in 2025.

Despite these rather optimistic forecasts, one thing is clear: most banks have underestimated the extent of gold's rise in 2025. In fact, the yellow metal has far exceeded its initial targets, buoyed by the anticipated fall in interest rates, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions.

According to the leading financial institutions, several factors should continue to support the gold and silver market over the coming months:

Continued monetary easing, with a gradual reduction in key interest rates and renewed investor interest in precious metals.

A worsening economic cycle, combined with persistent inflation, as appears to be the case at present. The next employment figures will be decisive.

A weakening US dollar and a rise in geopolitical or trade tensions.

Source : Reuters

Conclusion

In the current economic climate, marked by volatile financial markets and geopolitical uncertainties, physical gold has established itself as a safe and tangible form of savings. Unlike purely financial assets, it escapes counterparty risks and retains its value, regardless of currency fluctuations or political decisions.

Over the medium to long term, gold has historically stood out for its relatively high profitability and low risk.This is due both to the metal's scarcity and to its role as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

Last but not least, it offers a major advantage in terms of liquidity: whether in bars, coins or wafers, gold is easy to sell, anywhere in the world, at any time. This combination of security, sustainable performance and ease of disposal makes it a prudent diversification pillar for any investor wishing to preserve their wealth.

The recent stabilization of gold and silver prices undoubtedly marks a breathing space after an exceptional year. Despite a slight dip from their October peaks, precious metals continue to enjoy a structurally favorable momentum, driven by lower key rates, persistent inflation and solid demand.

Most banks have set a bullish target for 2026, albeit with a slowdown in the upward trend seen to date.