Still on a very bullish long-term trend, gold is taking advantage of the back-to-school period to continue its upward march, crossing several historic thresholds.

THE PRICE OF AN OUNCE OF GOLD HAS REACHED NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS AT OVER $3,500 AN OUNCE.

Well on the way to settling permanently above $3,500, nothing seems to be stopping this asset, which has recorded a performance of over 30% since the beginning of the year.

If the fundamentals remain in the metal's favor, the trajectory towards 4,000 dollars could even quickly become a reality.

But how can we explain gold's dynamism, particularly in recent days? To answer this question, we offer you a clear and structured overview of the current factors impacting gold, in order to better understand the dynamics currently at work.

ARTICLE SUMMARY :

• 1) Why is gold so attractive to investors this autumn?
• 2) The factors behind gold's current rise
• 3) Short- and medium-term prospects

1) Why is gold so attractive to investors this autumn?

An all-time high of over 3,500 USD per ounce

In recent months, the price of gold has reached unprecedented heights against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump's trade war. In mid-March 2025, an ounce (just over 31 grams) of gold reached the symbolic ceiling of 3,000 dollars (2,628 euros).

Then, on Tuesday April 22, 2025, another symbolic threshold was erased, as the 3,500-dollar (approx. 3.000) per ounce was reached for a few hours, as the President of the United States openly attacked the President of Japan.The President of the United States openly attacked the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, on his Truth Social network.

A second breach of the $3,500 mark in September 2025

Since this April episode, the gold price has consolidated for several weeks, including during the summer, hovering between $3,200 and $3,400 an ounce.

But during the week of September 1, gold retested and broke through the $3,500 mark with vigour. This gave the golden metal a new bullish momentum, with an increase of over 35% since the beginning of the year.

Source: TradingView (weekly view)

2) Factors behind the rise in gold prices

Strong expectations of FED rate cuts

The main driving force behind the gold rally is the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting.

This idea was first mooted at the Jackson Hole Symposium, held in the United States between August 21 and 23. This annual event is closely followed by the financial markets, as it brings together the world's leading central bankers.

This prospect creates a generally favourable environment for gold, since lower rates reduce the appeal of yield-generating assets, while gold, although non-interest-bearing, gains in attractiveness as a reserve asset.

Doubts about the FED's independence

On a different note, but still concerning the US central bank, political pressure initiated by US President Donald Trump against the chairman of the monetary institution is raising doubts about the FED's independence.on FED Chairman Jerome Powell continue to fuel concerns about the central bank's independence.

The latest episode came at the end of the summer, when Donald Trump himself sacked Governor Lisa Cook. While Lisa Cook intends to defend her position in court, the American president's constant pressure to destabilize the institution and bring it under his control raises questions.

Indeed, these tensions are heightening the sense of systemic risk, worrying financial markets and driving investors towards safer assets such as gold.

Macroeconomic instability and fiscal concerns

Uncertainty surrounding the viability of public finances in several major economies, notably in the West, is contributing to this gold rush.

In the UK, for example, long-term bond yields have reached their highest level in 27 years in recent days, against a backdrop of fiscal tensions and political instability. Similarly in France, the 30-year bond yield has exceeded 4.5%, a level not seen since 2011, during the sovereign debt crisis.

Source: Trading View (French 30-year yields, monthly view)

Continued strong demand from central banks

Central banks (notably in India, China, Turkey and Poland) are continuing to buy gold to diversify their reserves, to the detriment of sovereign bonds and the US dollar.

Indeed, since 2022, net annual purchases by these institutions have exceeded 1,000 tonnes, double the average observed between 2016 and 2021.

Sustained capital flows into gold-backed ETFs

Investment flows into physical gold-backed ETFs are robust, sustaining buying pressure on the market.

These institutional purchases, which are more structured than the opportunistic, speculative transactions of individual investors, reflect a deep-seated conviction in the metal's long-term potential.

Unresolved geopolitical risks still very much with us

Although the month of August suggested progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, this was not to be. This protracted conflict, as well as tensions between the USA and Venezuela, are all factors contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

3) Short- and medium-term outlook

Technical momentum still very bullish

Technically, the price of gold has crossed a new threshold, breaking through the resistance at around $3,500. It is now poised to rise towards $3,600, or even higher if momentum persists.

If expectations of a rate cut materialize, accompanied by a weak dollar and stubborn institutional demand, gold could quickly aim for $3,700.

Some analysts even believe that prices could reach $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, particularly if inflows to ETFs continue.

Ultimately, only a political or economic turnaround (restoration of confidence in the FED, fiscal consolidation, resolution of geopolitical conflicts) could alter this dynamic.