Traders the world over are eagerly awaiting the US central bank's decision on key interest rates, against a backdrop of uncertainty over inflation trends and trade tensions linked to new tariffs expected in the coming days. This decision should have a major impact on the gold price, which has already shown signs of anticipation in recent weeks:

• Private employment came out negative, with 33,000 jobs destroyed in June, a first since March 2023, triggering a notable rebound in the gold price.
• The unemployment rate was published at 4.1% in the United States, compared with the expected 4.3%, although this led to a slight decline in gold the following day, as investors judged the labor market to be more resilient than expected.
• Monthly inflation is due to be published on July 15, a key indicator that could influence the Fed's monetary stance in the autumn.

The market is now more appreciative of an accommodative monetary policy, even if one faction of the Fed remains vigilant in the face of persistent inflation. In particular, Goldman Sachs expects three 25-bp cuts (September, October, December), for a terminal rate of around 3-3.25%, compared with 4.25-4.50% today. Here are the signals to watch out for between now and September.

ARTICLE SUMMARY:

• A turbulent autumn for gold?
• Statistics to watch in July?
• Trump's upcoming tariffs: risk or opportunity?
• Can gold rise above $3,400?
• September 2025: the risk of a "false pivot" for gold
• ECB ahead of schedule: the euro climbs!

Towards a turbulent autumn for gold?

The market is now more appreciative of the prospect of a more accommodative monetary policy, even if part of the Fed committee remains particularly vigilant in the face of the risk of persistent inflation. In particular, Goldman Sachs anticipates three cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October and December, which would bring the key rate down to 3-3.25% from the current 4.25-4.50%.

The prospect of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September 2025 is already raising expectations in the financial markets. According to Goldman Sachs, the probability of a first rate cut as early as September now exceeds 50%. Meanwhile, analysts at Wells Fargo believe that such a monetary pivot would be a "powerful boost" for gold, against a backdrop of persistently low rates that reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

This configuration is reminiscent of 2019, when gold prices rose by almost 25% in the space of a year following successive Fed rate cuts. At the time, the bullish momentum was particularly marked, with a surge of around 10% in just a few weeks. From a technical point of view, the ounce of gold expressed in dollars is now approaching $3,300, a historically high level. Despite four successive attempts to break through the resistance zone around $3,400 an ounce, the precious metal seems to have been in a more wait-and-see mode for several weeks, marked by price consolidation.

However, the prospect of monetary easing and the evolution of the main exchange rates, notably the relationship between the dollar and the euro, could prove to be major catalysts capable of putting an end to this phase of apparent stagnation and re-launching a more sustained dynamic.

Statistics to watch in July

In the United States, private employment fell by 33,000 jobs in June, according to the monthly report published by ADP, the first decline since March 2023. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had, on the contrary, anticipated net job creation of 100,000 over the month, underscoring the scale of the negative surprise. These figures suggest that the momentum of the US economy may be less solid than analysts had been expecting, reinforcing the likelihood of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in the months ahead.

This announcement triggered a rebound in the price of gold, which climbed towards $3,350 an ounce, before stabilizing around this threshold. Investors' reaction reflected the belief that a slowdown in the job market would increase the pressure for the Fed to cut interest rates, thus weakening the dollar and bolstering demand for gold. However, the unemployment rate came in at 4.1% on Thursday, slightly lower than the 4.3% expected, which nonetheless reflects a certain resilience in the US labor market. This divergence between falling private job creation and still-contained unemployment illustrates the complexity of the current economic environment.

Inflation figures for June will be published on July 15. In May, annual inflation came in slightly below expectations at +2.4%, against a forecast of +2.5%. Core inflation, i.e. excluding food and energy, came in at +2.8%, again slightly below expectations (+2.9%). These data confirm that, although inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, it is trending downwards.

Consequently, the combination of gradually decelerating inflation and a labor market showing signs of moderation suggests that the Fed has more room to maneuver when it comes to easing monetary policy. However, the persistence of markedly positive real rates, i.e. interest rates above inflation, continues to weigh on economic activity, particularly consumption and business investment.

Trump's upcoming tariffs: risk or opportunity?

Add to this the imminent decision on tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. The so-called "reciprocal" tariffs, suspended or deferred by the administration since early April, are due to come into force on July 9, 2025. This marks the end of the ninety-day truce agreed during the winter, paving the way for the application of new rates of up to 70% on certain countries deemed uncooperative.

Nevertheless, the legality and effective implementation of these rates remain subject to the assessment of the competent Court of Appeal, whose verdict is expected between the end of July and the beginning of August 2025. The date of July 9 is therefore a key milestone: it is the moment when these measures will theoretically become applicable, subject however to the outcome of the appeal procedure currently underway.

According to Reuters, "the markets believe that there is sufficient flexibility in the timeframe, barring any unforeseen major events, not to be too disruptive.seen, not to be too disrupted by further tariff announcements, and consider that the worst-case scenarios have now been ruled out". And yet, as certain trade negotiations stall, a possible stubbornness on the part of Donald Trump in his protectionist escalation could provoke a particularly negative surprise effect for global financial markets.

The initial announcement of the tariffs at the beginning of April led to considerable volatility in the gold price: after a rising phase, prices fell back rapidly, before resuming a more marked upward trend as the spring progressed. Even so, it's not out of the question that an easing of trade tensions in the coming months could lead to a further decline in the precious metal, as investors redirect some of their flows towards riskier assets. Uncertainty remains.

Will gold rise above $3,400?

Given gold's stagnation in recent weeks, three distinct scenarios are emerging for the coming months:

• SCENARIO 1: Double global easing. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank begin cutting their key interest rates. In this case, a further weakening of the dollar would become likely, providing a strong boost to the dollar price of gold. The rise would be more moderate in euro terms, however, due to the simultaneous depreciation of both currencies.
• SCENARIO 2: US slowdown and cautious ECB. The Fed begins its easing cycle, while the ECB waits. The dollar falls, but the euro remains relatively firm. This configuration would boost dollar gold, but limit the upside for European investors.
• SCENARIO 3: Fed restrictive and ECB still accommodative. If the Fed adopts a more restrictive stance by keeping rates high, while the ECB continues its accommodative policy, the euro could weaken against the dollar. In this scenario, gold would gain less in dollar terms, but its price expressed in euros would benefit from a favourable exchange rate effect.

At this stage, economic data and market expectations make scenario 2 particularly plausible: a Fed engaged in an easing cycle, while the ECB pauses. This backdrop could encourage gold's ascent, but if this trend is over-anticipated, then gold's reaction could be nil, or even the opposite. In any case, a strong euro would curb gains for European investors, despite a buoyant international context for gold.

September 2025: the risk of a "false pivot" for gold

While rate cuts generally tend to boost gold prices, often by several tens of percent in the years that follow, the current situation presents a number of specific features likely to alter the dynamics.

The US Federal Reserve began its first rate cut in August 2024. This decision was followed by a spectacular rise of almost 40% in the price of gold. The scale and speed of this rise reflect gold's exceptional sensitivity to expectations of monetary easing in a context marked by geopolitical uncertainties and renewed inflationary pressures. However, a further cut in key interest rates may only lead to a more moderate rise in the gold price, given that it has already recorded a considerable increase over the past twelve months.

This "false pivot" scenario is a risk not to be underestimated: as investors have largely accepted the prospect of monetary easing, the announcement effect may prove less powerful than before. Nonetheless, if the gold price manages to establish itself permanently above the $3,400 mark following the Federal Reserve's decision, this would confirm the Fed's view that the price of gold is on the rise.decision, this would confirm the entry into a new phase of structural bullishness, driven by persistently low real interest rates and the search for safe-haven assets.

ECB ahead of schedule: the euro climbs!

In June, the European Central Bank initiated a further rate cut (-25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2%), notably in response to the persistent strength of the euro, deemed to be penalizing inflation. This decision had an immediate effect on the price of gold in euros: after reaching an all-time high, the price per ounce fell back moderately under the effect of the partial correction of the single currency.

This example illustrates that, even when key interest rates are falling, a strong currency can attenuate the expected bullish effect on gold. After several months of gains (+14% against the dollar in 2025, with the euro approaching $1.18-1.20), the euro is now exerting downward pressure on euro-denominated commodities, including gold.

Against this backdrop, European investors are faced with an ambiguous situation: on the one hand, falling US interest rates and the dollar's relative weakness are boosting gold's dollar-denominated premium; on the other, the euro's strength is mechanically limiting the extent of this appreciation in the single currency.

Conclusion

The markets are closely watching the US Federal Reserve's next decision on key interest rates, expected in September 2025. After an initial cut in August 2024 and a nearly 40% surge in gold prices, the Fed could cut rates by a further 75 basis points by December, bringing the rate down to around 3-3.25%.

This scenario is fuelling expectations of further support for gold, although the rise could be more moderate, as the bullish momentum has already been largely built up. The latest private employment figures (-33,000 jobs in June) reinforce the likelihood of easing, while a lower-than-expected unemployment rate underlines the resilience of the labour market.

Inflation, due on July 15, will be crucial in confirming this trend. Meanwhile, the euro appreciated by 14% against the dollar, exerting downward pressure on euro-denominated gold despite the ECB's rate cut.

Finally, the possible entry into force of new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump from July 9 could create further volatility. If these factors are confirmed, gold could sustainably break through $3,400, but the risk of a "false pivot" and running out of steam remains real.