Over the past quarter, gold has outperformed most stock market indices, with lower volatility. Compared to the bond market, it also offers protection against unpredictable monetary policies.

As a result, in recent weeks, the yellow metal has made spectacular progress, beating record after record and breaking through major psychological thresholds one by one: $3,500 and $4,000 an ounce in particular.

This raises the question for all gold investors and collectors: how should we interpret recent trends in the price of gold, and what strategies should we adopt to invest wisely in such a changing environment?

TABLE OF CONTENTS :

• 1) Continued growth despite economic turbulence
• 2) Factors behind this steady rise
• 3) Technical market movements
• 4) Major bank projections for the year ahead
• 5) Tips for investing in gold in 2025?

1) A steady rise despite economic turbulence

Between July and September 2025, gold continued its upward trajectory, establishing itself as one of the best-performing assets of the quarter.

• At the beginning of July, the ounce of gold was hovering around $3,250.
• At the end of August, it broke through the symbolic $3,500 barrier, even peaking at $3,526 in early September.
• By the end of September, the precious metal had stabilized at around 3,480 dollars, maintaining a net increase of almost 7% over the quarter.

In mid-October, gold continued to perform well, even surpassing 4,350 dollars an ounce.

This momentum is part of a broader uptrend that began last spring. Given the current state of the gold price, this quarterly performance reflects renewed confidence in precious metals, in an increasingly uncertain global monetary environment.

2) Factors behind this steady rise

- The recent trend in gold prices is the result of a combination of economic, monetary and geopolitical factors.

- The expectation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED) in response to signs of economic slowdown in the United States. This scenario weakens the dollar and automatically boosts gold's appeal.

- Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, combined with trade tensions between major powers, are fuelling structural uncertainty, prompting investors to seek the security of a tangible, universally recognized asset.

- Paradoxically, high bond yields have discouraged long-term investments, due to their inflationary risk. Gold, uncorrelated with interest-rate markets, therefore appears to be a strategic alternative.

- Institutional demand (notably from central banks in Asia and the Middle East) is providing lasting support for the market.

3) Technical market movements

On the technical front, the gold curve confirmed the end of the consolidation phase begun in the spring. The crossing of resistance at $3,450 was a strong signal.

This technical break triggered automatic buying on the futures markets, amplifying the upward movement. However, after reaching the $3,526 high, a natural breathing space set in. Trading volumes fell slightly in September, reflecting a logical profit-taking after several weeks of rapid progression.

Finally, October saw a resumption of the strong uptrend.

Graphically, between the beginning of August and mid-October, gold rose by over 30%, i.e. by almost $1,000 ($3,400/4,400).

Source: TradingView (monthly view of gold since 2019)

4) Major bank projections for the year ahead

The consensus remains broadly bullish for year-end 2025, but projections vary according to monetary and geopolitical expectations.

• HSBC has raised its average estimate for 2025 to USD 3,455 per ounce, and projects that gold could reach up to USD 5,000 per ounce by early 2026.
• Bank of America anticipates a target of USD 5,000 per ounce for 2026, or even higher in some extreme scenarios (up to USD 6,000).
• J.P. Morgan projects that gold could exceed USD 4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026, averaging around USD 3,675 per ounce by the end of 2025.
• Deutsche Bank indicates that gold could reach or sustainably exceed USD 4,000 per ounce in 2026.

Thus, the evolution of the gold price between now and the end of the year will depend mainly on three variables:

- U.S. monetary policy: a confirmed cut in key interest rates would bolster demand.

- Inflation trends: if inflation remains contained, gold could take a breather, but a resumption of price rises would propel it back to its peaks.

- The global geopolitical situation: any increase in tension would automatically fuel demand for safe-haven assets.

5) Tips for investing in gold in 2025

Given these dynamics, how can we position ourselves effectively? Here are a few simple guidelines to help you invest wisely:

Diversify your entry points

Rather than investing all at once, it's better to buy gradually. This method, known as step-by-step investing, smoothes the purchase price and reduces the risk associated with short-term fluctuations.

Favoring recognized products

Bullion coins such as the 20 francs Napoléon or the Krugerrand, for example, are easy to resell and widely recognized. 10-gram or 20-gram bullion bars are also a good compromise between accessibility and value.

Think long-term

Gold is not a speculative asset, but an asset protection tool. It appreciates over time, especially when financial markets contract. Investors must therefore adopt a sustainable approach, integrating gold into a balanced overall portfolio.

Conclusion

Over the past three months, gold has demonstrated its resilience and confirmed its status as a safe-haven asset in a rapidly changing world. Buoyed by expectations of lower interest rates, a weak dollar and sustained demand from central banks, gold has established itself as a stable asset in the face of volatile financial markets.

In the current macro-economic context, it is advisable to adopt a prudent and progressive strategy. Investing in gold today means seeking protection before immediate performance. The yellow metal remains an insurance against uncertainty, a way of anchoring one's wealth in something tangible, while everything around fluctuates.

To monitor daily market trends and adjust your strategy, you can consult the current gold price and the latest financial news published by our industry specialists.