Since January 1st, the price of gold has risen by +48%, and that of silver by +66%. In September alone, gold appreciated by +11%, while silver gained +16%.

As gold prepares to cross the symbolic threshold of $4,000 an ounce, silver is approaching its previous highs of 2011. How can such a performance be explained? And is this trend set to continue?

ARTICLE SUMMARY:

• 1) Gold prices soar towards $4,000 an ounce
• 2) The causes of this considerable rise
• 3) A rise also supported by stock market optimism
• 4) Silver price within reach of 2011 record
• 5) 2025: the great comeback of metals

1) Gold prices soar towards $4,000 an ounce

September 2025 marked a historic acceleration for precious metals. Despite the resilience of the global economy, the confirmation of a rate-cutting cycle in the United States and the structural rise in international tensions appear to have ushered gold into a new phase of its history.

After more than four months of consolidation between $3,250 and $3,450 per ounce, the yellow metal accelerated sharply in September to surpass the symbolic threshold of $3,900 per ounce in early October.

This uninterrupted ascent, which began in 2024 and has been relaunched since 2022 following the major peak in 2020, is impressive for its consistency and intensity.

A 1kg gold bar now exceeds €100,000, while the famous Napoléon 20 Francs happily tops €600.

2) Causes of this sharp rise

The announcement by the US Federal Reserve that it was cutting its key interest rate accelerated the rise in the price of gold from around $3,400 to $3,900 an ounce. However, the metals' return to favor is primarily due to structural factors that place them back at the heart of the international, financial and industrial scenes.

- AUGUST 22, 2025: at the central bank symposium in Jackson Hole (USA), the Fed Chairman hinted that a policy adjustment "might be appropriate". The signal of future easing immediately supported gold, which set a new all-time record in the following days.

- SEPTEMBER 17, 2025: the Fed's 25-bp rate cut rekindled the appetite for precious metals. Markets began to anticipate further rate cuts by the end of the year, amid signs of a less tight labor market.

- OCTOBER 2, 2025: Shutdown and US employment. Employment statistics showed a drop of 32,000 net new jobs, reinforcing bets that the economy is slowing down, expectations of further rate cuts and demand for safe-haven assets.

- Persistent geopolitical premium: the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, enduring tensions in the Middle East and, in 2025, the brief war between Israel and Iran in June maintained a risk premium on gold. Even when price movements are modest or short-lived, the succession of episodes feeds the demand for hedging (central banks and investors).

3) A rise (also) supported by stock market optimism

While the extraordinary performance of precious metals can be partly explained by the easing of interest rates and geopolitical tensions, the sharp rise in stock market indices reflects a climate of optimism.

The S&P 500 has gained almost 15% since January 1, while the CAC 40 has gained almost 10%. The resilience of the global economy is underpinning the major indices, with growth remaining robust despite persistently high inflation, particularly in the United States. Against this backdrop, gold and silver are benefiting from a redeployment of capital towards non-cash assets such as crypto-currencies, equities and metals.

Above all, silver's industrial dimension gives it a dual status (precious and industrial) that amplifies the bullish momentum: when risk appetite returns and activity is sustained, demand for "grey" metal linked to industrial uses (electronics, equipment, energy transition, etc.) reinforces silver's appeal.) reinforces the asset's appeal, in addition to its hedging role.

The causes of metal price rises are therefore manifold, accentuating the intensity and regularity of this upward trend.

4) Silver within reach of its 2011 record high

This upward trend is even more pronounced for silver. The price is on the verge of surpassing its previous 2011 record ($49.56 per ounce), having recently approached $48. Unlike gold, silver has enjoyed almost continuous growth since the beginning of the year.

Despite the rise in financial demand (investment products, speculative flows), physical demand for the "gray metal" remained subdued in the first half of 2025. The Silver Institute points out, however, that in India, retail investment demand remains buoyant, up 7% year-on-year in the first six months of 2025, reflecting persistently high price expectations.

Conversely, in the United States, high resales and weak retail buying have weighed on coin and bullion sales, with many investors taking advantage of prices close to multi-year highs to take profits.

This contrasting situation could change in the second half of the year. The considerable rise in metal prices should encourage a return of retail investors. In the meantime, the proximity of the 2011 peak gives the silver market a major technical and psychological threshold, likely to amplify short-term volatility.

5) 2025: the great comeback of metals

This year marks the comeback of precious metals. Their considerable performance is reviving an unprecedented appeal that some investors have been waiting for for many years.

Interest in gold and silver is fuelled by two factors: on the one hand, stock market optimism driven by the resilience of the economy and the prospects opened up by AI; on the other, geopolitical and monetary uncertainties reactivating the quest for safe havens.

This upsurge is not simply the result of cyclical factors. Above all, it reflects a more structural need for society to turn to precious metals to offset economic and political uncertainties, as well as the fragility of the international monetary system.