August is often a pivotal month in gold price trends. This is largely due to the economic or monetary transitions that can take place in the following months. Furthermore, July 2025 seems to confirm a stagnation in the gold price against a backdrop of mixed financial publications and economic figures.

While many investors are wondering about the trend of the gold price in August, the events to come in September will play a major role for gold. Is gold still an opportunity in August 2025, or is it overvalued given the current economic climate?

ARTICLE SUMMARY :

• 1) Gold prices in brief
• 2) Towards a platonic August for gold?
• 3) Mixed publications in July
• 4) What's the outlook for year-end?
• 5) Key dates ahead
• 6) Continued investor interest

1) Gold prices in brief

• The price of gold has stabilized below $3,350 an ounce after failing to break through the $3,440 barrier for the 4th time since April.
• In recent weeks, the gold price has been supported by a weakening dollar and falling US bond yields. But the prospects of certain trade agreements, notably with Japan, have limited the rise in the price.
• According to the World Gold Council, gold could move sideways with a slight upward bias: +0 to +5% over the second half of 2025, but the "aggravated risk" scenario could propel the metal by a further 10 to 15%.

2) Towards a platonic August for gold?

August is historically a period of reversals, particularly on the downside, as in 2011, 2016 and 2020. However, it can also offer rebound opportunities, as in 2023. Summer often represents a transitional phase, preceding the major economic decisions expected in September.

On the chart, the price of gold has been clearly levelling off since April, around the $3,400 per ounce threshold. This resistance level, tested four times, was once again rejected, as suggested in our previous analysis. This behavior reinforces the hypothesis of a stagnation phase for the price in August. Nevertheless, the scenario remains open.

Source: Chart - Investing.com  

A clear and confirmed exceedance of this resistance would constitute a strong technical signal, indicating a possible resumption of the upward trend in place since the beginning of the year. Conversely, a new inability to cross this threshold could lead to a decline towards the $3,250 per ounce zone initially. 

Finally, the visible triangle configuration currently shows a gradual tightening of volatility, between a horizontal upper bound and a recently broken upward trend line. Only a major event could possibly cause a sufficient rise in the price of gold.  

This compression of the movement suggests that a large directional movement could occur in the short term, reinforcing the interest for careful monitoring of key technical levels during the month of August. 

According to investors, this technical phase can therefore consist of a purchase opportunity due to stable prices, or on the contrary an attestist behavior before the events of the start of the school year.  

3) Mixed publications in July 

In July 2025, US inflation data confirmed a moderate slowdown in price growth. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI inflation for the month of June was +2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation (exfood, energy) was +2.9%.  

This increase was partly attributed to the counterproductive effects of recently imposed customs tariffs, impacting the price of certain imported goods. Nevertheless, services remain relatively contained, which tempers overall inflation. 

On the financial side, the results published in recent weeks in the United States are generally mixed. S&P Global PMIs for July show a robust services sector, while the manufacturing sector is rather contracting.  

Finally, the markets are sensitive to the ongoing trade negotiations: the prospects of an agreement between the EU and the United States lead to relative easing, but the threat of tariffs still weighs on investor sentiment.  

These mixed publications have contributed to the stagnation of the gold price and they place investors in a "wait-and-see" behavior.

4) What are the prospects for the end of the year? 

The World Gold Council outlines three trajectories for the rest of the year, using its gold valuation model: 

Gradual normalisation. According to the consensus of economists, global growth would remain moderate. While the Fed could lower its rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year, geopolitical tensions would persist. In this scenario, the price of gold could experience a slight increase of +0 to +5%. Gold would remain supported but already well valued, with little room for progression in the short term. 

Deterioration of economic and political conditions. In the event of a return to stagflation or a global recession, gold could benefit from a surge in hedging demand and a sharper decline in rates and the dollar. The World Gold Council sees in this hypothesis an additional increase from +10 to +15%, bringing the annual gain up to 40%. 

Resolution of tensions. If trade tensions ease sustainably and growth resumes, risky assets could regain attractiveness at the expense of gold. The World Gold Council is considering a correction from -12 to -17% in the second half of the year, although a technical support threshold around $3,000 per ounce would likely limit losses. 

Source: Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025 | World Gold Council 

Furthermore, the report outlines several identifiable factors likely to explain the performance of the gold price since January 2025: 

• The opportunity cost (7%): mainly linked to the weakness of the dollar and stable rates, which promote a rise or stagnation in the price of gold.  
• Risk and uncertainty (4%): driven by geopolitical instability and macroeconomic uncertainties. 
• Momentum (5%): self-training effect due to positive flows towards ETFs and futures. 

Gold could therefore move into a narrower range in the short term, but upside potential remains open if tensions worsen. Conversely, a significant improvement in global fundamentals could weigh on the yellow metal. 

5) The key upcoming dates  

Financial markets, just like the gold price, are expected to be influenced by several major economic publications in the coming weeks. However, the relative scarcity of these indicators could maintain a form of wait-and-see attitude, conducive to a phase of stagnation in gold prices. 

- JULY 30, 2025: publication of US GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025. On the same day, the FOMC will issue its monetary policy statement.  

- 1st August 2025: publication of GDP growth in the euro area for Q2 2025. This announcement will be closely monitored given the weak growth in the first quarter. 

- AUGUST 1, 2025: potential entry into force of the new American customs tariffs on European products. In the absence of a last-minute agreement, the EU could respond with targeted countertariffs.  

- 12 AOUT 2025: publication of CPI and core CPI inflation data (July 2025) in the United States. This report will be decisive in anticipating the decisions of the Fed at its September meeting, especially in case of a bull surprise on underlying inflation. 

- 21–23 AUGUST 2025: Jackson Hole in Wyoming. Jerome Powell will intervene on August 23. Expected as a highlight, his speech could discuss the long-term strategic review of the Fed’s monetary policy, and confirm (or deny) the hypothesis of an initial rate cut in September. 

- SEPTEMBER 6, 2025 (planned): publication of the monthly report on employment in the United States (Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly wages). A crucial indicator in the Fed’s balance, particularly scrutinized a few days before its next meeting. 

- SEPTEMBER 12, 2025: European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. According to the latest market expectations, a second rate cut of 25 basis points is expected. 

- 17–18 SEPTEMBER 2025: next FOMC meeting. The first rate cut of 25 basis points could be decided. 

6) The interest of investors is maintained 

In the first half of 2025, ETFs physically backed by gold recorded net inflows of $38 billion, the largest injection since the first half of 2020. These flows are equivalent to an additional 397.1 tonnes, bringing overall assets to 3,616 tonnes, the highest level since August 2022. 

“Despite a slowdown in momentum in May and June, Asian investors bought a record amount of gold-backed ETFs in the first half of the year, impressively contributing to 28% of global net flows while they represent only 9% of assets under management in the world," says the World Gold Council (WGC). 

In the same vein, central banks acquired 244 tonnes in Q1, despite a slight slowdown compared to 2024, but remaining at very high levels. Nevertheless, jewelry purchases have declined, hindered by very high prices: demand for jewelry has fallen to unprecedented levels since 2020, while demand for bars and coins remains high.  

Finally, according to CFTC data from July 2025, hedge funds hold 311,949 long gold contracts, an all-time record, highlighting a growing speculative dimension of gold demand. Conversely, this figure could favor the hypothesis of a "technical overheating".  

Conclusion 

The month of August can mark a decisive turning point for gold, with previous bears as in 2011, 2016 or 2020, but also notable rebounds, as in 2023. While prices have been plateauing since April around $3,400 per ounce, tested several times without a durable crossing, its exceedance would be interpreted as a signal of bullish recovery. Failing that, a return to $3,250 is conceivable.  

The volatility of gold has recently compressed, drawing a triangle figure. This configuration suggests a potentially imminent directional exit. Wait-and-see attitude therefore predominates in the markets. Yet, gold remains supported by robust demand. Gold-backed ETFs attracted $38 billion in the first half of the year, and central banks continued their purchases at a high pace. Speculative interest is also strong: hedge funds hold a record number of long positions. 

The next weeks will be punctuated by key economic publications: GDP growth, inflation, employment in the United States, as well as the Jackson Hole symposium. The market is also waiting for the decisions of the ECB and the Fed in September, with a possible rate cut. According to the World Gold Council, three scenarios emerge: a moderate normalisation (contained increase), an economic deterioration (strong increase), or an overall improvement (correction).