A Surprising Rebound After a Disappointing Quarter

As of July 3, 2026, the new signal is not geopolitical but monetary: gold is rebounding just as the market emerges from its worst quarterly run since 2013. According to a Reuters report, the spot price of gold rose to $4,177 per ounce on Friday, up about 2.2% for the week—its first weekly gain in five weeks. Silver followed suit at $62.41 per ounce, returning to a level it had not held for more than a week. The key point is not so much the absolute figure as the shift in market dynamics: the market has stopped, at least temporarily, systematically selling off rallies.

This reversal is directly linked to the U.S. labor market. The June report released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job gains limited to 57,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. For precious metals, the message is clear: less strain on the labor market means less immediate pressure for further rate hikes. The market has reflected this with a decline in the dollar and a retreat in tightening expectations—two factors that had heavily weighed on gold and silver in June.

The real driver: real interest rates, not market noise

We need to keep a level head. This weekend’s rebound does not erase the macroeconomic damage of recent weeks. As recently as Tuesday, gold hit a multi-month low below $3,943 before recovering, according to Reuters. In other words, the market had begun to price in a scenario of higher U.S. interest rates for a longer period, fueled by inflation fears and central banks’ persistent sensitivity to the energy shock of the spring. Gold therefore remains less driven by its status as a safe-haven asset than constrained by the price of cash in dollars.

The caveat is that structural demand has not evaporated. The World Gold Council notes that global demand for gold in the first quarter, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, reached 1,231 metric tons, with 474 metric tons in bars and coins, while central banks purchased an additional 244 metric tons during the period. More recently, the World Gold Council reports that official reserves increased by a net 41 metric tons in May, led by Poland (18 metric tons) and China (10 metric tons). This does not protect the market from a correction when yields rise, but it explains why every dip below $4,000 quickly attracts long-term buyers.

For individual investors, the practical implication is simple. For gold, the recent $4,000–$4,200 range is once again becoming a zone for tactical re-accumulation rather than a market for chasing prices higher. For silver, the situation remains more volatile: the metal is benefiting from the same relief on interest rates, but with higher volatility. In other words, silver may outperform if the dollar weakens further, but it will also correct more quickly if inflation figures or wages start rising again. In this context, spreading out purchases remains a more rational approach than trying to catch the bottom.

The Week’s Key Development

This week’s mining news comes from Quebec. On July 2, Agnico Eagle announced a ground movement on the north wall of the Barnat pit at Canadian Malartic; no one was injured, but operations were temporarily suspended. The company estimates the impact at a shortfall of 60,000 to 80,000 ounces of gold in the second half of 2026 at this site. This isn’t a global supply shock, but it serves as a useful reminder: beyond the broader macroeconomic narrative, the gold market is also driven by physical tonnage, geological quality, and operational risks.

What happens next will play out on two fronts: the dollar and the upcoming U.S. inflation figures, followed by gold’s ability to sustainably hold above $4,150. If it succeeds, silver could regain the upper hand more decisively. Otherwise, this rebound will remain a technical breather in a market still dominated by interest rates.