In 2025, silver saw its best performance since 1979.

Since January, it has risen by almost +90%, surpassing the rise of gold. This near-doubling of the price attests to the grey metal's historic comeback on the international scene.

Having fallen below $12 an ounce in 2020, silver is now approaching $60. This spectacular surge can be explained by both structural and cyclical factors. But is this phenomenon sustainable?

Article summary:

• Historic rise: In 2025, silver will post its best performance since 1979, with an increase of almost 90%, overtaking gold and regaining a major role on the markets.
• Structural shortage: Since 2021, supply has been limited by the absence of new mines, while industrial demand (photovoltaics, technologies, energy transition) is growing strongly.
• Favorable context: Geopolitical uncertainties, falling rates and trade tensions are reinforcing silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
• Forecast: Banks are targeting $55-60 an ounce in 2026, with higher potential if the deficit persists.

1) Why is silver soaring?

Since 2021, the physical silver market has been suffering from a chronic structural deficit. The lack of new primary silver mines is limiting supply, while demand continues to grow, driven in particular by the photovoltaic, electronics and electrical technology industries. This scarcity of supply has an automatic impact on prices.

In 2025, the rise in the price was primarily due to this persistent shortage. But, as in the case of gold, cyclical factors have amplified the trend. International uncertainties, combined with US rate cuts, have stimulated demand for silver as a safe-haven asset. The Silver Institute anticipates a +7% rise in investment demand by 2025, a figure that could exceed initial forecasts.

Added to this are the tensions linked to US politics under Donald Trump. Trade and tariff uncertainty have contributed to drying up liquidity in the physical market. Stocks in warehouses, particularly in London, are down sharply. Several traders opted to repatriate their metal to the United States, fearing logistical or customs disruptions. This reallocation reinforced the scarcity of silver on the world's main stock markets.

2) What factors will influence the price of silver in 2026?

As usual, silver prices are benefiting even more from optimism about metals. Today's silver market is faced with a demand for investment, technology and, above all, the environment, which is unbalancing prices.

Beyond the impact of monetary decisions, silver is showing its strengths and marking an unprecedented comeback. In its November 2025 forecasts, UBS is targeting a price of around $55 an ounce by mid-2026, with the potential for $60 an ounce or more if investment demand strengthens. It should be noted that the $55 level was already well exceeded in early December.

Some more aggressive analyses even suggest scenarios of $75 to $90 an ounce, in the event of a persistent deficit and a speculative boom.

Several factors will play a key role in silver in 2026:

• An acceleration in investment in solar energy or power grids would directly support demand for silver.
• The evolution of gold. Silver often amplifies movements in the yellow metal. The structural scarcity of the grey metal over the last few years seems to be reflected in prices.
• Trends in interest rates, inflation and growth. Silver's sensitivity to industrial demand also makes the metal's price sensitive to periods of economic tension, which is generally not the case for gold.

3) Silver market outlook to 2030

If the assumptions of high industrial demand and lasting constraints on supply are confirmed, the silver market could experience a profound imbalance, with supply unable to keep pace with demand.

A recent study suggests that, by 2030, silver supply would cover only 62% to 70% of total demand, if the latter were to be around 50,000 tonnes a year. In particular, "the photovoltaic industry is expected to become the fastest-growing source of silver demand, reaching 10,000 to 14,000 tonnes per year (or 29% to 41% of supply)". The imbalances observed in recent years are thus likely to continue, if not worsen.

Moreover, the upward trend observed over the last few years differs markedly from that of the 1970s. Nevertheless, the World Bank points to certain similarities between the growth of metals in 2025 and that of the late 1970s: geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, currency worries. Yet the parallel has its limits. For several years now, gold has been making a marked comeback on the monetary scene, while silver is establishing itself as a strategic metal at the heart of the energy and industrial transition.

This situation contrasts sharply with the 1980s, which were marked by massive sales movements. On the contrary, the current dynamic is part of a long-term structural trend, and not a speculative bubble comparable to the episodes of the past.

Conclusion

All in all, silver is emerging as a strategic metal. The production shortage affecting the market is supporting a structural rise in the metal's value, a trend that is set to continue into 2030. Industrial demand, for its part, should continue to grow, while it remains very difficult to establish reliable supply projections.

The major banks' forecasts for 2026 remain optimistic, even if a consensus is emerging around a more measured increase than that seen in 2025. Lower interest rates, combined with geopolitical concerns, have largely contributed to the surge in silver prices this year.

The grey metal is thus gaining in popularity with investors, both as a strategic resource essential to modern industry and as a tangible asset that can offer security and diversification.