The silver price has seen its strongest performance since 2010, rising by almost 69% since January 1. This spectacular rise has taken many investors by surprise, especially as most of the increase has been concentrated since the end of August. How can we explain this movement? And above all, is this a lasting trend?

The price of silver has soared since the end of August, mainly as a result of monetary policy decisions in the United States.

Since October 17, however, silver has corrected by over 10%, following Donald Trump's announcement of a possible easing of tariffs with China.

Swiss bank UBS nevertheless believes that the metal retains strong potential between now and 2026, and underlines its growing attractiveness compared with gold.

ARTICLE SUMMARY:

- Silver has soared to an all-time high: +69% since January and over +30% in two months, driven mainly by expectations of rate cuts in the USA.

- After peaking in mid-October, the metal corrected by around 10% following announcements of trade détente between Washington and Beijing.

- Banks such as UBS remain optimistic, anticipating a return to $55 an ounce by 2026.

- Silver enjoys a strong appeal against gold and solid industrial demand.

- A persistent supply deficit and the rise of renewable energies reinforce its bullish potential.

1) Silver: a market in turmoil!

The silver price has risen by over 30% in two months, almost as much as since the beginning of the year. Other precious metals, such as gold and palladium, have also seen their prices accelerate. The causes of this trend are both structural and cyclical.

The upward momentum of recent months coincides in particular with the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Every expectation of a rate cut has supported the silver price, which rose from $36 at the end of August to over $53 in mid-October.

This sustained rise in silver prices, against a backdrop of falling rates, was sharply curbed by Donald Trump's announcement on October 17 that he would ease trade tariffs with China. This announcement led to a drop of over 10% in the silver price in the space of three sessions. Trump's reduction in tariffs effectively reduces international uncertainty and reduces the potential for higher inflation.

Finally, financial markets' anticipation of two further rate cuts between now and the end of the year reinforces the metal's bullish potential.

The continuation of this rate-cut-backed uptrend could be sustained if silver rises above $54 in the coming weeks. A sustained return to below $47 would, however, open up the risk of the price stagnating.

2) A metal "relatively cheap compared with gold

In its latest analysis, the renowned Swiss bank UBS points out that "silver continues to benefit from sustained industrial demand and remains relatively cheap compared to gold".

In its analysis, "UBS anticipates that silver ETF outstandings will return to their previous highs of 1.021 billion ounces, buoyed by an improvement in the macroeconomic context expected for 2026".

At the end of June, the Silver Institute pointed out that global holdings in these ETPs reached 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below their all-time high of February 2021 (1.21 billion ounces). The silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) segment has already seen a spectacular surge, with 95 million ounces of net flows invested in the first six months of 2025. That's already more than in the whole of 2024!

The recent surge appears to have been driven primarily by exceptional financial demand. Demand for gold in ETFs reached an all-time high, with $17 billion in capital inflows in September, according to the World Gold Council.

This record inflow brings cumulative flows from July to September to $26 billion, the strongest quarter on record.

Finally, UBS underlines "an appetite for exposure to silver, which we expect to rebound to USD 55 per ounce by June 2026". The bank adds that "investors may consider hedging or selling the downside risk associated with the metal".

3) Demand for silver still strong

According to the Silver Institute, global silver demand in 2025 should remain stable compared with 2024, at around 1,150 million ounces. But the resurgence of investment demand that has underpinned the rise in silver prices in recent months could well bolster global demand.

UBS points out that this demand could grow further in 2026 if favourable economic conditions, particularly in the USA, continue. Demand for silver remains relatively uncompressible, driven by the growing need for renewable energies.

Thus, the anticipation of further rate cuts, combined with continued robust economic activity, should continue to support structurally high demand for the white metal.

The existence of a structural silver production deficit for several years has fostered a long-lasting shortage that shows no signs of abating.

Conclusion

Today, silver is one of the most dynamic assets on the commodities markets, driven by monetary, industrial and structural factors. Its considerable rise, the strongest since 2010, testifies to the white metal's spectacular comeback.

While the correction observed since mid-October reflects a phase of technical breathing space, it does not call into question the strength of the underlying trend.

The market continues to be underpinned by robust industrial demand, particularly in the renewable energies, electronics and photovoltaics sectors, as well as by a structural supply deficit.

Added to these fundamentals is growing interest from institutional investors, who see silver as a more affordable alternative to gold, with the potential to catch up. Demand for bullion in the form of financial products could reach new records.

Against this backdrop, according to UBS forecasts, silver could reach $55 an ounce by June 2026, if current monetary and macroeconomic dynamics continue.