Is the gold market on the verge of a genuine “golden age”? The yellow metal, whose price has topped $3,500 an ounce this year, is attracting the attention of investors and economists alike. This spectacular surge is not only due to geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation. It is also accompanied by global gold production at an all-time high.  

According to data published by the World Gold Council (WGC), the year 2024 already marked a mining production record, with 3,661 tonnes extracted worldwide. Estimates for 2025 confirm a continuing upward trend, underpinned by massive investment in the gold sector, intensified exploration projects and structurally strong demand. Which countries dominate global production? What explains this rise? And above all, what are the production prospects for the years ahead?

SUMMARY OF ARTICLE : 

• An unprecedented level of production
• The limits of growth: towards a production peak?
• A cyclical production market?
• Which countries will benefit most from this expansion? 
• Gold production: what are the economic impacts?

An unprecedented level of production 

For the past two decades, global gold production has followed a generally upward trajectory, with the exception of stagnation over the past 10 years. In 2024, mine production reached 3,661 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council, surpassing the previous records of 2023 and 2019.  

Preliminary data for 2024 suggest a further increase, estimated at between 3,670 and 3,700 tonnes. Several analysts believe that in 2025, the symbolic 3,750 tonne mark could be passed, an all-time high since modern data has been compiled. 

The sharp rise in the price of gold means that gold production is now not only profitable, but also attractive, which could mean a sustained increase in production over the next few years. This dynamism can also be explained by a combination of factors: a high gold price that supports the profitability of mining projects, technological innovations in extraction, and strong global demand, particularly from central banks and institutional and retail investors (coins, bars, etc.). 

The limits to growth: towards a production peak? 

Despite the current rise, some analysts are warning that peak production is imminent, a concept often referred to as ‘peak gold’. The discovery of major new deposits is slowing down, and the average gold content of mines is tending to fall. The gold market is therefore exposed to a ‘scissor’ effect: 

• Gold production is becoming more difficult as high-grade deposits become scarcer.  
• At the same time, innovations in production mean that larger areas and more complex projects can be exploited.  

However, mining is only possible with an ever-increasing cost of gold production. Against this backdrop, the price of gold needs to expand rapidly to make gold production slightly more attractive. 

In addition, it often takes more than 10 years to open a new mine, due to regulatory requirements, local consultations and infrastructure needs. Finally, growing environmental considerations, ranging from water consumption and waste management to carbon footprints, are forcing mining groups to review their practices, which could slow the pace of growth in the medium term. As a result, mining production is exposed to a number of structural limitations: 

• The gradual depletion of the richest deposits. 
• Increased regulatory and environmental pressure. 
• Geopolitical tensions affecting certain mining areas. 

The future of gold production will therefore depend on the ability of players to innovate, diversify their projects geographically and meet regulatory requirements. Only a significant rise in the price of gold will be able to overcome these limitations.  

A cyclical production market? 

As with most commodities, production constraints lead to a mean-reversion effect. For example, a high oil price will encourage the development of new fields and an increase in production. The surplus supply will eventually lead to a fall in the oil price, reducing the incentive to produce, and so on. In the end, the price of oil will fluctuate around a long-term average, while at the same time going through cycles of overproduction and underproduction.  

The gold market is more or less subject to similar dynamics. This is because of the long time it takes to establish a mining deposit and the slowness of responses in mining production. A sharp rise in the price of gold can therefore be accompanied by stagnation in production for several years, creating the conditions for a speculative movement.  

As a result, it is quite possible that the sharp rise in the price of gold in recent years has led to renewed interest in previously neglected mining projects. If these projects come to fruition, it is entirely conceivable that we will see a sustained increase in mining production over the next few years, similar to the period 2000-2010.

Which countries will benefit most from this expansion?  

Global mining production is mainly divided between China, Russia, Australia and North America. Increased production is likely to be most pronounced in China and Africa, where there is still considerable potential. But other regions could benefit from the expansion of mining activity.  

China: the world's largest gold producer 

China remains the world's largest gold producer, with estimated output of around 370 tonnes in 2024, slightly up on previous years. The provinces of Shandong, Henan and Yunnan account for the bulk of the country's gold mining activity. 

In addition to its production, China is also the world's leading consumer of gold, reinforcing its determination to secure domestic supplies. The country continues to invest in projects abroad, notably in Africa and Central Asia. 

Russia: robust gold production 

Russia is maintaining robust production, estimated at around 320 tonnes in 2024. Despite Western sanctions, the Russian gold sector remains strategic for the country, which continues to exploit major deposits such as those of Polyus Gold and Nordgold.

In the face of the current crisis, gold is an essential component of the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Central Bank, which continues to buy gold on a massive scale to reduce its exposure to the dollar. 

Australia: a pillar of the world market 

Australia is in third place, with production of between 310 and 320 tonnes. The country benefits from particularly rich deposits in Western Australia (notably around Kalgoorlie), exploited by giants such as Newcrest Mining and Northern Star. A stable regulatory environment, modern infrastructure and local expertise explain the strength of Australian production. 

North America: moderate increases in production 

Canada continues to rise in the world rankings, with nearly 200 tonnes produced, supported by active projects in Ontario, Quebec and the Far North. In the United States, production remains stable at around 170 tonnes, mainly concentrated in Nevada (notably the gigantic Carlin mine, operated by Barrick Gold and Newmont). 

Africa: revival of historic deposits 

Countries such as Ghana, Mali and Burkina Faso are seeing an increase in production, despite the sometimes unstable political situation. Ghana, in particular, is now Africa's leading producer, with a forecast output of 125 tonnes in 2024, ahead of South Africa, once the undisputed leader. 

Gold production: what are the economic impacts?  

For producing countries, dynamic gold production is a major source of foreign currency and tax revenue. In some African and Latin American countries, gold accounts for more than 10% of national exports. In Africa, gold accounts for more than 14% of all goods exports, according to the World Trade Organisation.

Source : WTO Blog | Trade in intermediate goods is on the rise in Africa 

In this context, holding gold is becoming a tool of economic sovereignty. Russia and China have understood this and are using gold as a strategic lever, particularly in the face of sanctions, currency turbulence and the instability of the dollar. Gold production could therefore become a strategic issue.  

Finally, increased gold production, if accompanied by constant or even growing demand, only reinforces gold's appeal as a financial asset. It always acts as a stabiliser in portfolios, particularly in times of tension on the equity markets or monetary imbalances. 

Conclusion 

In 2025, global gold production is set to reach new records, reflecting an economic context marked by uncertainty, the quest for security and a renewed appetite for tangible assets (coins, bullion, etc.). Countries such as China, Australia, Russia and Ghana play a central role in this dynamic, supported by high prices and technological innovation. 

Some countries, notably in Africa and Latin America, stand to benefit greatly from increased mining production. But this growth, while impressive, is not unlimited. Gold production is becoming more complex every year, against a backdrop of growing environmental and social concerns. The recent U-turn by the United States on this issue could, however, benefit the expansion of production in North America.  

Beyond its market value, gold is likely to become a growing strategic issue. Global gold production is one of the most revealing barometers of the profound changes taking place in our world, which more than ever has an insatiable need for gold.