Article summary:

• Marked 3-month rally: platinum and palladium extend the sharp rise begun in mid-2025, against a tense market backdrop.
• Platinum in the lead: +80% since January 2025, driven by soaring investment and jewelry demand (particularly in China) and a structural supply deficit.
• Sustainable deficit: WPIC anticipates a third consecutive year of deficit, with no long-term sustainable surplus.
• Palladium on the rebound: +60% by 2025, supported by tighter supply and automotive demand.
• Outlook for 2026: price targets raised, confidence maintained despite electrification.

1) Platinum prices soar

While gold and silver have recorded their best performance since 1979, platinum has also made remarkable progress in 2025. Since January, its price has soared by almost 80%.

Specifically, the price of platinum has risen from around $1,100 per ounce in May to over $1,500 per ounce in September, then to over $1,600 per ounce in December.

According to the World Platinum Investment Council(WPIC), this surge can be explained by three main factors:

- The return of strong investment and jewelry demand. WPIC points out that in China, "significant year-on-year increases of 134% and 176% in jewelry and investment demand, respectively, were observed in the second quarter of 2025".

- Insufficient supply, characterized by "constrained production and a lack of appetite for new growth projects". South Africa alone accounts for over 70% of the world's platinum supply, making the market even more vulnerable.

- Growing demand for investment and jewelry, as platinum is perceived as an attractive precious metal. Indeed, "demand for platinum is currently on the rise, due to its significant discount to gold and white gold jewelry".

This increase is part of a wider context of structural shortage. WPIC forecasts a third consecutive year of substantial market deficit.

Although this deficit could be reduced by 2026, there is no long-term prospect of a sustainable production surplus.

Source: WPIC_Platinum_Essentials_Sept_2025_Updated WPIC two- to five-year supply and demand outlook

2) Palladium follows in platinum's wake

Palladium is up by almost 60% in 2025, with half of this increase concentrated in the last three months. This metal, which is close to platinum, seems to be reacting to the marked rise in its "twin" since June. Since autumn, palladium has slightly outperformed thanks to a rebound from particularly depressed levels.

Palladium is currently enjoying a return of tactical interest, supported by several factors:

• Highly concentrated supply under pressure: Russia and South Africa together account for almost 80% of global supply. The risk of sanctions, restrictions or disruption of Russian flows could therefore seriously destabilize the market.
• The prolonged use of internal combustion and hybrid vehicles, particularly outside Europe, continues to underpin demand for palladium, which is essential for the manufacture of catalytic converters for gasoline engines.

However, palladium differs from platinum in the structure of its demand. Around 80% of the palladium market goes to the automotive sector, mainly for catalytic converters, compared with less than 40% for platinum.

The remainder of demand is essentially divided between various industrial uses, making palladium much more dependent on the dynamics of the automotive market.

3) What's the outlook for 2026?

Forecasts gathered by Reuters show that analysts have raised their price targets for 2026 on both metals after the rally of 2025. With a median price forecast of around $1,550 per ounce for platinum and $1,260 per ounce for palladium, analysts are betting on renewed confidence in the resilience of these two metals despite the rise of electrification.

Conclusion

Platinum, bolstered by a chronic deficit, growing demand in China and limited mine supply, is emerging as one of the most resilient metals of 2025.

Palladium, despite its growing dependence on the automotive sector, is benefiting from a technical rebound and a geopolitical context that continues to restrict global supply. This trend is also in line with the evolution of the gold price.

Both metals therefore remain closely linked to solid fundamental factors, which should continue to influence their trajectory in 2026. Upwardly revised market forecasts illustrate analysts' confidence in the ability of these two metals to maintain high price levels.

However, developments in the automotive industry and mining investment decisions will continue to determine their future equilibrium, particularly for palladium.